The weekly market indicator

Major Indices - Weekly PerformanceS&P 500: 6909.51 +1.12% (weekly)Dow Jones: 49625.97 +0.35% (weekly)Nasdaq: 22886.07 +1.28% (weekly)Russell 2000: 2663.78 +1.83% (weekly)VIX: 19.09 -8.31% (weekly)Earnings Season InsightsTech Sector Highlights:Monitor major tech earnings for guidance on AI spending, cloud growth, and margin trendsSemiconductor companies reporting on chip demand and inventory levelsSoftware/SaaS companies highlighting subscription growth and retention metricsConsumer Discretionary Sector Challenges:Retail earnings showing pressure from inflation and changing consumer spending patternsE-commerce growth rates and margin compression themesAutomotive sector reporting on EV transition progress and supply chain normalizationFederal Reserve Interest Rate DecisionFOMC Meeting - January 28, 2026:Fed HELD rates at 3.50%-3.75% (10-2 vote, pausing after three consecutive cuts)Dissenters: Stephen I. Miran and Christopher J. Waller (both preferred 25bp cut)Powell stated policy is "somewhat restrictive" with inflation "still too high" in high-2s to low-3sLabor market showing signs of stabilizing; future rate hikes are NOT the base caseTariff inflation expected to peak "in the middle quarters of 2026"Economic growth expected to accelerate in H1 2026Next FOMC meeting: March 18-19, 2026 (likely to hold rates again)Powell's term ends May 2026; Kevin Warsh nominated as next Fed ChairInflation Data ReleaseDecember 2025 CPI (Released January 13, 2026):Headline CPI: +2.7% year-over-year (unchanged from November), +0.3% month-over-monthCore CPI (ex-food & energy): +2.6% YoY, +0.2% MoMShelter costs elevated at ~4.6% YoY (owner's equivalent rent)PCE inflation (Fed's preferred measure): ~2.8% YoY in recent months - still above 2% targetGeopolitical tensions continue to impact markets:Nvidia earnings, SCOTUS tariff fallout, geopolitical tensions rise: What to watch this weekSector RotationSectors gaining traction:Industrials (XLI): +2.59% - Strong relative performance this weekUtilities (XLU): +2.39% - Strong relative performance this weekCommunication Services (XLC): +1.88% - Strong relative performance this weekSectors facing headwinds:Health Care (XLV): +0.53% - Relative weakness vs broader marketMaterials (XLB): +0.25% - Relative weakness vs broader marketConsumer Staples (XLP): -1.48% - Spending concerns weighing on discretionary namesNew IPOs and SPACsBob's Discount Furniture (BOBS) IPO - February 5, 2026:Priced at $17.00 per share (low end of $17-19 range), raising $331 million19.45 million shares offered; market cap ~$2.2 billion at IPOFirst day: opened at $17.00, reached $18.87 (+11%) intraday, closed at $17.02 (+0.1%)206 showrooms across 26 states; expansion target of 500+ stores by 2035Revenue $2.32B with net income $119.93M (12 months ended Sept 28, 2025)Bain Capital retains 75.4% ownership post-IPORecent SPAC IPOs (Late January - Early February 2026):Hennessy Capital Investment Corp. VIII (HCICU): $241.5M (upsized), Feb 5, Nasdaq - industrial tech/energy transitionColombier Acquisition Corp. III (CLBR.U): $260M, Feb 3, NYSE - board includes Donald Trump Jr.Iris Acquisition Corp. II (IRAB.U): $150M, Feb 2, NYSEWhite Pearl Acquisition Corp. (WPAC.U): $100M, Jan 30, NYSE - FinTech/InfoTech focusM Evo Global Acquisition Corp. II (MEVOU): $270M (upsized), Jan 29, NYSEKRAKacquisition Corp. (KRAQ): $300M (upsized from $250M), Jan 27, Nasdaq - digital asset economy (Kraken/Tribe Capital)Space Asset Acquisition Corp. (SAAQ): $200M, Jan 27, Nasdaq - "Space 2.0" focusHelix Acquisition Corp. III: $150M (upsized from $125M), Jan 23, Nasdaq - healthcare/biotech (stock-only, no warrants)SPAC Market: 24 SPAC IPOs raised $5.619 billion in January 2026 (highest monthly total since February 2022)Notable De-SPAC Activity: Kodiak Robotics ($2.5B valuation), Veraxa Biotech ($1.3B), Terra Innovatum ($475M - nuclear), Terrestrial Energy ($925M - nuclear), Xanadu ($3.6B - quantum computing)Cryptocurrency MovementsBitcoin: $67,463.52 -0.05% (weekly)Ethereum: $1,948.29 -2.20% (weekly)Institutional adoption trends and ETF flowsRegulatory developments in crypto marketsCorrelation with risk assets and tech stocksEconomic IndicatorsUnemployment Claims:Initial claims: Stable in low-200k range showing labor market resilienceContinuing claims: Showing labor market health with no significant deteriorationTrend: Labor market stabilizing per Fed assessmentRetail Sales:December retail sales showed consumer resilience despite inflation pressuresEx-auto and gas: Core spending holding upTrend: Real spending power being tested by persistent inflation; upcoming January data will be key indicatorS&P 500 (6909.51, +1.12%):Consolidating just below 7,000 psychological level after reaching highs near 7,000 in DecemberSupport levels: 6,850-6,900 (immediate), 6,750-6,800 (strong), 6,650 (50-day MA, critical)Resistance: 7,000 (psychological), 7,050-7,100 (next target)RSI: 48 (neutral with slight bearish lean); MACD showing neutral/slight bearish divergence50-day MA: ~6,650 (currently above); 200-day MA: ~6,400 (strong long-term support)Sector Technical Signals:Strong relative strength: Consumer Staples (bullish breakout), Industrials (trending higher), Materials (base building)Weak relative strength: Technology (broken support), Communication Services (downtrend), Consumer Discretionary (rolling over)Key patterns: Tech (XLK) potential head-and-shoulders at ~$225; Nasdaq testing 50-day MA supportTrading range: Consolidation continues with choppy action and sector rotation persistingTop Market News This Week1. Is It Time to Buy Palo Alto Networks Stock on the Dip?2. Oil analysts say there is a supply glut — why that hasn't translated to lower prices this year3. Nvidia earnings, SCOTUS tariff fallout, geopolitical tensions rise: What to watch this week via /r/Badboyardie https://ift.tt/xeT3D1r